State of Origin Game 1 kicks off at Accor Stadium tonight at 8:05pm AEST with the NSW Blues sent out as 2.5-point favourites in front of a crowd expected to push past 82,000. Ethan Strange, the Roosters utility called up to start at five-eighth after Mitchell Moses' hamstring strain ruled him out on Tuesday morning, partners Nathan Cleary in a Blues halves combination that has had two days of paired training. Six Blues debutants in total: Strange, Addin Fonua-Blake, Tolutau Koula, Victor Radley, Blayke Brailey and Casey McLean. Sam Walker debuts for the Maroons at halfback in Tom Dearden's absence. Four Maroon debutants in total: Walker, Jojo Fifita, Max Plath and Briton Nikora.
The Spine Battle Decides Game 1
Tedesco at fullback, Cleary at halfback, Strange at five-eighth and Reece Robson at hooker is the most balanced spine NSW have named since 2022, even with Moses' late withdrawal. Kalyn Ponga at fullback, Sam Walker at halfback, Cameron Munster at five-eighth and Harry Grant at hooker is the Maroons answer, with Munster getting through Tuesday's Allianz Stadium captain's run without any hint of the soreness that had him watching Sunday's Sunshine Coast session from the sideline. Walker's debut is the live narrative. The Roosters playmaker, who modelled his game on Allan Langer growing up, takes the No.7 in front of a hostile Sydney crowd at 23. Strange has the same Wednesday weight of his debut to carry. The Fonua-Blake debut, via the new dual-pathway eligibility, is the other Game 1 story. Blues coach Laurie Daley said the Tongan international's session work has been the high mark of the camp.
The Forwards and the Benches
Yeo captains the Blues from the lock spot, with Hudson Young and Haumole Olakau'atu the second row, and Fonua-Blake and Mitch Barnett the props. The bench reads Cameron Murray, Victor Radley, Jacob Saifiti and Blayke Brailey, with Matt Burton joining the squad as the late inclusion on the utility role under NRL approval. Maroons forwards: Thomas Flegler and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui props (Flegler returning from nerve-graft surgery), Harry Grant hooker, Reuben Cotter and Kurt Capewell second row, Max Plath debut at lock. Bench Briton Nikora (debut), Lindsay Collins, Pat Carrigan and Trent Loiero. Channel Nine is the host broadcaster. The Wally Lewis Medal is voted by an Origin panel after the final whistle.
Where the Markets Land
NSW are the Game 1 favourite at $1.85 head-to-head with the line at -2.5 across our reviewed bookmakers dabble, Ladbrokes and Picklebet, the Maroons at $2.00 head-to-head with +2.5 at $1.83. Game total trades around 36.5 points. The line has tightened from -3.5 on the Moses news through the week and the Blues' price has drifted from the $1.62 opener. Series odds: NSW $1.55 to win the series, Queensland $2.40. Wally Lewis Medal favourites: Cleary, Munster, Tedesco, Yeo. First-tryscorer markets favour To'o and Cobbo. Anytime tryscorer market for the debutants: Walker comes in to single figures, Strange holds around the $4.00 mark. Tuesday morning team-list confirmation and Game 1 live coverage build via ABC Sport.