Bankroll Monte Carlo Simulator
Set your parameters and run 100 simultaneous simulations to see the full range of bankroll outcomes. The bold blue line shows the median path.
How Monte Carlo Simulation Works
A Monte Carlo simulation runs a scenario hundreds of times with random outcomes to map the range of possible results. For bankroll management, each "run" simulates a sequence of bets where each bet has the same win probability, but the actual wins and losses are determined randomly. By running 100 simultaneous paths, you see not just the expected outcome but the full distribution - best case, worst case, and everything in between.
Understanding Probability of Ruin
Probability of ruin is the percentage of the 100 simulations where the bankroll hit zero (or fell below $1). Even with a positive edge, aggressive staking can produce ruin through variance alone. This is why flat staking and percentage-based staking are safer than Kelly for punters who cannot accurately estimate their edge.
Comparing Staking Strategies
Flat staking produces the most predictable paths but limits growth. Percentage staking compounds gains faster but losses accelerate when the bankroll drops. Kelly criterion maximises long-term growth for a known edge, but requires an accurate win probability estimate - overestimating your edge leads to over-staking and ruin.
Frequently Asked Questions
What win rate do I need to make a profit?
At average odds of $1.90, you need to win more than 52.6% of bets to break even (1 / 1.90 = 52.6%). At $2.00 you need 50%. At $2.50 you need 40%. The break-even win rate is always 1 divided by the average odds.
Why do different runs of the same simulation give different results?
Each run uses different random numbers. The parameters (win rate, odds, staking) define the expected outcome, but variance produces a spread of actual results. Click "Run Simulation" multiple times to see how the distribution changes. The summary statistics stabilise across runs because they aggregate all 100 paths.
Is Kelly staking safe for recreational punters?
Kelly is aggressive. Even with Half-Kelly, an overestimated win rate leads to rapid bankroll drawdown. Most professional punters use a fraction of full Kelly (between a quarter and a half). For recreational punters, a flat stake of 1-2% of your total bankroll per bet is safer and easier to manage.
What does "probability of ruin" actually mean?
It is the percentage of simulated paths where the bankroll was depleted before the final bet. A ruin rate of 5% means 5 out of 100 simulations went broke. With a positive edge, ruin is still possible through a bad run of variance, especially with aggressive staking. Ruin is permanent - you cannot recover from zero.
This simulator uses random number generation and is for educational purposes only. Past simulation results do not predict future outcomes. Gamble responsibly. For free support call 1800 858 858.