Early-season NRL form has already forced noticeable repricing in 2026 premiership markets. A fresh odds update published by The Sporting News, using prices attributed to Sportsbet, shows Penrith as a clear favourite while several mid-table teams have tightened, and Canberra has recorded one of the steepest drifts after the opening month.
Penrith set the benchmark, while the chasing pack reshuffles
The Sporting News’ update lists Penrith at $2.55, a major move from a pre-season $6.50 quote, reflecting a commanding start to the year. Brisbane remains the only other club in single figures at $8.00, but it has eased from $6.00, signalling a market that sees the Panthers as the early benchmark rather than a two-horse race.
Behind the top two, the market is tighter. Melbourne and the Sydney Roosters are both priced at $11.00, with Melbourne’s odds described as having expanded to that point. South Sydney sits in the next cluster at $15.00, highlighting how quickly a handful of results can pull a contender into the conversation without any one team becoming a runaway third pick.
Big improvers: Knights and Tigers shorten off early performances
Two of the clearest shorteners are Newcastle and the Wests Tigers. The Sporting News notes both clubs have climbed the rankings due to impressive performances early in 2026, with Newcastle tightening from $67.00 to $34.00 and the Tigers from $41.00 to $34.00.
There are other quiet movers as well. The Warriors shortened from $26.00 to $21.00 and South Sydney from $21.00 to $15.00. These are not headline-grabbing prices, but they matter for punters because they indicate where the market is seeing genuine improvement versus early noise.
Big drifts: Raiders slide, while the Dragons’ price signals trouble
The biggest negative move in the update is Canberra, which has drifted from $16.00 to $61.00 and is described as dropping from sixth to 13th after five rounds. When that sort of drift happens this early, it often reflects both ladder position and how a team’s underlying performances are being judged relative to expectations.
At the other end, the St George Illawarra Dragons are listed at $251.00 and described as winless, with the update calling them frontrunners for the wooden spoon. While the wooden spoon market is a separate product, a price this long in premiership betting often tells you the market sees a season of damage limitation rather than a late surge.
What This Means for Punters
Early NRL prices are still volatile, so it pays to separate genuine team strength from the emotional pull of a few high-profile results. If you are looking at futures, track whether movements are being driven by repeatable factors like defence, completions and squad depth, rather than one-off finishes.
It is also a reminder to shop around responsibly. If you are comparing prices across licensed bookmakers such as Betfair or Ladbrokes, focus on market depth and rules rather than chasing the shortest number after a team has already firmed.