Round 9 of the AFL season opens with the kind of fixture the broadcaster builds the Thursday night slot around. Fremantle host Hawthorn at Optus Stadium at 8:10pm AEST, the second team on the ladder against the third, with both sides carrying genuine premiership credentials into the contest. The Dockers are 7-1 with seven straight wins. The Hawks are 6-1-1 after Thursday's 93-all draw with Collingwood at the MCG. Whatever happens tonight will reset the top-four race for the rest of May.
The Hawks at Optus Have a Problem
Hawthorn's record at Optus Stadium against Fremantle is the lurking subplot of tonight's contest. The Hawks have lost their last five appearances at the venue against the Dockers, including the 13-point loss in Round 18 last year that knocked them out of double-chance contention. Sam Mitchell has not had to manage the away-from-the-MCG factor much this season, but Optus is the unique road-trip headache for any Victorian club. The forecast is for a clear evening with a 14-degree temperature, which removes the wet-weather variable that has flattered the Dockers' contested style in past seasons.
For the Hawks, the personnel question is around the rotation through the centre. Hawthorn won't have Jaeger O'Meara (face, two weeks) and the centre-bounce role lands on Will Day and Jai Newcombe. Sam Mitchell has signalled in the build-up that the side will resist matching Fremantle's contested-clearance grunt and instead play a faster perimeter game, looking for chips and switches off half-back to attack the Dockers' high half-forward press.
Fremantle on the Cusp of the Top
The Dockers come in fresh off a 12-point win over the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on Friday, and the seven-game winning streak. Justin Longmuir makes one change, with Patrick Voss replaced by Karl Worner depending on form. Tim English starts in the ruck. Caleb Serong, Andy Brayshaw and Sean Darcy have been the Dockers' three-headed midfield engine through the season's opening run, with Serong averaging 31 disposals and 7 clearances at $5 in the Brownlow market.
The Hawks have to find an answer for Josh Treacy, who has now kicked 30 goals through eight rounds. Treacy is the Coleman favourite at $4.50 ahead of Jeremy Cameron at $5 and Charlie Curnow at $11. Karl Worner can be a difficult matchup for any tall defender. Mass Cox at full-back has had a tagging brief on big forwards all year, and his battle against James Worpel (sweeper from half-back) will be the matchup that decides the rebound balance.
Where the Markets Land
The bookmakers have Fremantle as $1.62 favourites with the line at -8.5 at dabble, with Hawthorn the $2.30 underdog. Picklebet have a similar framing at $1.62/$2.32. The total points line of 158.5 looks beatable given Fremantle's defensive grunt averaging 65 points conceded over the streak. Treacy at 3+ goals sits at $1.85, the standout same-game multi piece. Same-game multi at $3.45 is Fremantle to win and Treacy 3+ goals at Ladbrokes.
Round 9 continues Friday at the Gabba with Brisbane vs Carlton (8:10pm AEST), and Saturday delivers the Pendlebury record-equalling fixture at the MCG with Geelong vs Collingwood at 7:35pm. Full Round 9 fixtures and team selections are at AFL.com.au.