Brisbane host Carlton at the Gabba on Friday night at 7:30pm AEST in the kind of fixture that can confirm or end a coaching tenure. The Lions sit sixth on the ladder at 4-3 with 118.8 percentage points, fresh off a 64-point demolition of Essendon last weekend. The Blues have won one game in eight, the lone victory a Round 1 defeat of Richmond, and now travel to the Gabba where Lachie Neale and Cameron Rayner have been kicking goals at a rate that flatters anyone in their way. Michael Voss spent ten years as a champion at the Lions before coaching them in the early 2000s, and Friday is the latest Gabba homecoming where the maths against him is harder than the welcome.
Recent Form Suggests a Margin
The recent head-to-head says Brisbane by 37 points in Round 18 last year, by 28 in the 2024 Elimination Final, and by 16 in the 2023 Preliminary Final. Carlton's last win against the Lions was a one-point Opening Round 2024 result that has not been replicated since. Brisbane have averaged 109 points per game across their seven home wins of 2025, and the Lions' forward line of Charlie Cameron, Logan Morris and Lachlan McAndrew has averaged 14 goals between them in the same period. Charlie Cameron's three goals against Essendon last weekend were a return to peak form after a quiet first three rounds.
For Carlton, the personnel question is around the forward line. Charlie Curnow has nine touches and zero goals last week against St Kilda. The midfield engine of Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra has not been the problem. The forward 50 has had no marking target since Harry McKay's preseason injury, and the Blues have leaked an average of 116 points across their last three losses. Voss's selection panel chose Charlie Curnow on the bench, with Lewis Young in defence to plug the hole left when Mitch McGovern went down with a hamstring last week.
Voss Faces the Music
Voss said in the pre-game address that he understands what is being said. "I know the position," he said. "We need to get the ladder right. The players are working. The coach has to give them the structure." The Carlton president Robert Priestley issued a one-line public statement of support last week that was widely interpreted in the football media as the kind of statement which gets repeated by every Voss successor. The Carlton wooden spoon market sat at $4.50 at the start of last week and is now $3.20 at dabble, level with West Coast.
The Lions go into Friday with one personnel question of their own. Joe Daniher (knee) misses again. Eric Hipwood plays. The Lions starting forward line of Cameron, Morris, Hipwood, McAndrew and Linc McCarthy is the same group that has averaged 110 points across the home games. Brisbane open at $1.18 favourites with the line at -38.5 at Picklebet, with Carlton drifting to $5 across the morning.
Where the Markets Land
The Brownlow Medal market continues to favour Caleb Serong of Fremantle at $5, ahead of Connor Rozee at $7 and Patrick Cripps at $11 at Ladbrokes. Josh Treacy is now Coleman favourite at $4.50, level with Jeremy Cameron at $5. The premiership market has Hawthorn at $4, Brisbane $4.50 and Sydney $5. Brisbane to win and over 175.5 points sits at $2.20 at dabble, the standout same-game multi piece.
Round 9 closes Sunday with Western Bulldogs hosting Melbourne at Marvel Stadium and Richmond travelling to Adelaide Oval to face Port. Full Friday match details and the Voss pre-match are at AFL.com.au.