AFL Round 12 opens at Marvel Stadium tonight with St Kilda hosting Hawthorn at 7:50pm AEST. The Hawks come in as $1.50 favourite with the Saints at $2.60. Hawthorn travel after the 75-66 win over Adelaide in Launceston last Thursday that lifted them to 5-1-5 and back into the eight. The Saints, beaten by Fremantle in Round 11, will be without ruckman Rowan Marshall and another forward both managing injuries from the Dockers fixture. Will Day returns for the Hawks after a successful VFL block. Jack Gunston's return is also being considered.
Carroll's ACL the Blues' Other Bad News
Carlton lost Matt Carroll to an ACL rupture in the Round 11 win over Port Adelaide last Saturday, with the third-year forward facing a 12-month rehabilitation that will rule him out of the remainder of the 2026 season. The Blues, who have steadied with back-to-back wins under Josh Fraser, host Geelong at the MCG on Friday night at 7:40pm with Adam Saad the likely Carroll replacement. Blake Acres is the alternative. Josh Fraser, the interim coach who has now overseen back-to-back Blues wins since Michael Voss' resignation, faces his hardest selection question with the side's best forward out of contention. Saturday's Marvel Stadium fixture against the form-line Western Bulldogs is the bigger problem on the horizon for Collingwood, with the Pies' injury crisis dropping Elliott, Hayes and Moore making the Round 12 fixture against the Dogs the most lopsided of the round in the markets.
Round 12 Card and the Form Lines
The full Round 12 card: St Kilda v Hawthorn at Marvel Thursday ($2.60 v $1.50); Carlton v Geelong at the MCG Friday ($3.70 v $1.25); Sydney v Richmond at the SCG Saturday ($1.10 v $7.50); Brisbane v Fremantle at the Gabba Saturday ($2.40 v $1.55); Western Bulldogs v Collingwood at Marvel Saturday ($1.63 v $2.25); Melbourne v GWS in Alice Springs Sunday ($1.65 v $2.20); West Coast v Essendon at Optus Sunday ($2.80 v $1.45). Adelaide, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne sit out the round on the bye. The form line favourites are Geelong off Saturday's heavy demolition of Sydney, and Fremantle on a ten-game winning streak.
Where the Markets Land
Hawthorn at $1.50 is the standout play tonight, with the Saints' team-news damage from Marshall and Howard dropping their Marvel form line in front of Day's return. Carlton-Geelong is the heavy line of the round, with the Cats at $1.25 holding firm through the week across our reviewed bookmakers dabble, Ladbrokes and bet365. Brownlow markets adjust on Sam Walsh from the Carlton fixture, with Jeremy Cameron the Coleman favourite again. Nick Watson, in form for Hawthorn, is the Thursday-night first-goal market that has come in. Sunday brings Melbourne v GWS at TIO Traeger in Alice Springs, the round's big-mile travel fixture. Full Round 12 fixture and Thursday team news via AFL.com.au.