Round 10 of the AFL season opens Thursday night with the kind of fixture the AFL would have given prime-time billing without being asked. Brisbane host Geelong at the Gabba at 7:30pm AEST, the 2025 Grand Final rematch with the Lions at home, the Cats fresh off Saturday's 54-point demolition of Collingwood at the MCG. Geelong sit top of the ladder at 9-1 with a points percentage of 154.3. Brisbane sit sixth at 5-3 with 119.2 per cent after Friday's 11-point escape against Carlton.
Why the Cats Are Favourites at the Gabba
The bookmakers had Geelong as $1.85 favourites with the line at -8.5 at dabble on Tuesday evening. The Cats are 4-0 on the road in 2026 with wins over the Bulldogs, Bombers, Hawks and Magpies, averaging 102 points per game across the four. Bailey Smith continues to be the form ball-getter in the AFL with 29 disposals and 8 clearances per game across the streak. Patrick Dangerfield has had an evergreen 30+ year, Jeremy Cameron is now the Coleman favourite at $4 with 33 goals through nine rounds, and Tyson Stengle's slick small-forward goalscoring (three against the Pies) has given the Cats a different forward shape than 2024.
Brisbane have a forward 50 that should pin the Cats' back six down. Charlie Cameron kicked three against Essendon two weeks ago and another three Friday. Eric Hipwood, Logan Morris and Lachlan McAndrew rotate through the goal square. Joe Daniher (knee) misses again. Lachie Neale is back to his ball-getting best after the Carlton win, 28 disposals and 4 clearances Friday night. The Cats' midfield engine has owned the contested-possession differential across the streak, but the Lions at the Gabba flip the script with weight of numbers around the ball.
The Recent Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head is split. Geelong won the 2025 Grand Final 90-72 at the MCG. Brisbane took the Round 18 2025 Gabba clash by 17. The 2024 Round 22 contest also went to the Lions by 9 at the same venue. Geelong's home record at GMHBA Stadium is the strongest in the AFL, but the Cats have not played a regular-season game at the Gabba since Round 18, 2024, when they lost by 23. The line market reflects the venue. The bookmakers gave the Cats -8.5 in Geelong on form, but the same line in Brisbane drops to -8.5 because the venue tax cuts the Cats' margin in half.
Personnel question for the Cats sits around the rotation through the centre. Patrick Dangerfield will play but is managed through the week, with Jhye Clark and Toby Conway both expected to take heavier on-ball loads. The Lions' selection panel rested Cam Rayner from main training Wednesday but he is expected to play. Will Ashcroft has returned to senior selection after a managed Round 8 break and his contested-possession output is the Lions' best counter to Geelong's tempo.
Where the Markets Land
The same-game multi piece at Picklebet sits Geelong to win and Cameron to score 2+ goals at $1.95, the standout play given Cameron's seasoning at the Gabba. Ladbrokes have a similar framing. The Brownlow market favours Caleb Serong at $4.50, Bailey Smith at $5.50, with Smith heavily backed across the round. The premiership market continues to put Geelong at $3.50 ahead of Hawthorn $5, Fremantle $4 and Sydney $5, with the Cats now level favourites following the Round 9 win.
Round 10 continues Friday with Adelaide hosting North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, then Saturday's heavy card. Full Thursday night fixture details, team selections (locked Wednesday) and Cameron pre-match are at AFL.com.au.