Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season is in the books. Here's how the betting markets performed.
Favourites Went 7-2
Pre-match favourites won seven of nine matches in Round 1. The two upsets came from teams that were close to even money, so the market wasn't wildly wrong on either result. Overall, backing every favourite on the head-to-head would have returned a small loss after margins.
Line Betting
Line betting was more volatile. Only 5 of 9 favourites covered the spread. Two games were decided by fewer than a goal, making line bets a coin flip. This is typical of Round 1, when teams are still finding their rhythm and bookmakers have limited current-season data to work with.
Totals
Overs hit in 6 of 9 matches. Scoring was higher than expected across the round, which is consistent with early-season trends. Defensive structures take time to gel, and Round 1 historically produces higher-scoring games than mid-season rounds.
My tip for Round 2: keep leaning overs until teams tighten up defensively, typically around Round 4-5. Full fixture at afl.com.au.