Hawthorn will win this MCG blockbuster and cover any reasonable line. The Hawks' four-game winning streak and top-four ladder position give them the edge over a Collingwood side facing a potential Scott Pendlebury rest.
Ladder & Market
| Team | Ladder | Record | Pct | Head to Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood Magpies Home | 8th | 4W-3L | 110% | - |
| Hawthorn Hawks Away | 3rd | 6W-1L | 125% | - |
Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood Magpies | |||
| 25 Apr | Essendon (home) | W | Collingwood 20.17 def Essendon 9.6 |
| 16 Apr | Carlton (away) | W | Carlton 12.11 lt Collingwood 13.10 |
| 02 Apr | Brisbane Lions (away) | W | Brisbane Lions 65 lt Collingwood 119 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | |||
| 25 Apr | Gold Coast (home) | W | Hawthorn 16.16 def Gold Coast 9.9 |
| 18 Apr | Port Adelaide (home) | W | Hawthorn 13.11 def Port Adelaide 13.8 |
| 11 Apr | Western Bulldogs | W | Hawthorn 104 def Western Bulldogs 64 |
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Collingwood: Scott Pendlebury expected rest (five-day turnaround from Anzac Day win over Essendon), not confirmed as official out, coach decision. Darcy Moore hamstring recovered, expected to return (2nd game of season) team news article 27 Apr 2026.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn's form line is terrifying, 4-0 since Round 4 with escalating dominance. They cruised to 16.16 (112) over Gold Coast's 9.9 (63) at UTAS on April 25, controlling contested possessions. The Marvel Stadium thriller against Port went to the wire, 13.11 (89) to 13.8 (86), clutch under pressure. Gather Round brought a 104-64 belting of the Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, marks and tackles overwhelming. Their rated forward structure converts chances better than most.
Team News
- Scott Pendlebury : Expected rest (five-day turnaround from Anzac Day win over Essendon)
- Darcy Moore : Hamstring: recovered, expected to return (2nd game of season)
- James Sicily : Served 1-match ban, available for selection
- Dylan Moore : Served 1-match ban, available for selection
- Mabior Chol : Hamstring: 4-5 weeks (out)
- Will Day : Shoulder: 4-5 weeks (out)
Take Hawthorn to win and Game Total over. Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals and James Sicily 20+ Disposals are the top player props.